FX.co ★ Skull999 | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold daily Forecast Gold (XAU/USD) pared back its gains on Friday after touching above the 3900 level. The precious yellow metal slipped to 3852 on Thursday, its lowest level since October 2025. Comments by hawkish Fed members have raised expectations of ongoing monetary tightening, boosting the value of the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasuries and weighing on the metal. So far this week, the yellow metal lost more than 4%. Currently, the pair is trading near the 3889 zone, up 0.40%. The next significant focus is PPI, due out today at 13:30 GMT. Analysts at ING described "A powerful, macro-driven rally in the dollar" this week as the market reprices the Fed's near-term monetary path. They said that "Short-dated US yields rose nearly 40 bp since Tuesday morning, after Fed governor Christopher Waller pondered over hiking rates in December by 50 bp." Following these remarks, ING analysts noted that "Markets have come around to seeing a pair of December and January rate hikes as very possible, taking the total Fed move from here to 85 bp." On Friday, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which monitors USD against a basket of six major global currencies, hovered near 103.23 and approached multi-month highs. DXY appears set to post three consecutive weekly gains. A stronger US Dollar index tends to make Gold costlier for bulls using other currencies. Moreover, rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield asset such as Gold. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released earlier in the week showed headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM in October, above the market consensus of 0.3%. In addition, core CPI, excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3%, outperforming expectations of 0.2%. According to Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, the central bank needs "at least two more 25-basis-point rate hikes" to bring down inflation. Also on Thursday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack said inflation dynamics are "going in the wrong direction," adding that the Fed must "pivot toward a restrictive stance" to reduce inflation to 2%. Further comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly revealed her "inclination towards tightening." Soaring energy costs may keep inflation elevated as chances of resolving the US-Iran conflict appear bleak. WTI Crude jumped more than 3% on Thursday after US President Donald Trump said his administration does not require a deal with Iran to conclude the conflict. On the daily timeframe, XAU/USD is maintaining an extended negative trend in the near term as prices stay below the 21-, 50-, and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Moreover, the RSI reading of 38 stays below the midline, whereas the MACD remains negative despite the absence of extreme oversold conditions. On the upside, initial resistance will come around the current horizontal level of $3,900, followed by the key psychological barrier of $4,000 and finally capped by the 21-day SMA at $4,031. Any attempt to move beyond the $4,031 mark faces further barriers at the 50-day SMA of $4,154 and the 100-day SMA at $4,197. Conversely, Thursday's low of $3,852 acts as immediate support before reaching the next major psychological level of $3,800. If bears manage to overcome the critical level, further losses may arise.