FX.co ★ Helsinki | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin is trading near $67,800 and has now shed more than 8% this week, touching $67,568 on Friday for its lowest level since mid-August, and the selloff has a distinctly cross-asset character to it. The immediate trigger came from equities rather than crypto: Nvidia fell more than 13% this week after commentary from its chief executive raised doubts about the durability of AI infrastructure spending, and that single move stripped the company of its status as the world's most valuable listed business. When the bellwether of the AI trade drops double digits in a week, risk appetite does not merely soften—it reprices across the board, and high-beta assets like Bitcoin absorb that repricing first. The damage inside crypto has been mechanical. CoinGlass data shows over $120 million in BTC positions liquidated this week, the overwhelming majority of them longs, which tells you leveraged bulls were caught leaning the wrong way and forced selling amplified the decline. Institutional flows have compounded the problem. SoSoValue indicates spot Bitcoin ETFs are on course for a third consecutive week of net outflows, with roughly $59.6 million pulled this week after about $12.8 million the previous week. That is a modest figure in absolute terms, but the direction matters more than the size; three straight weeks of redemptions signal that allocators are trimming rather than adding, and without that steady bid, the market has no natural buyer of size. Layer on top the Fed's hawkish repricing after October's hot CPI print, with December hike odds near 87%, and the picture is one where liquidity is tightening just as risk appetite is retreating. There is a case that momentum indicators are flashing oversold and a relief bounce is overdue, but oversold conditions in a market with persistent outflows tend to resolve through time rather than price. Until ETF flows turn and the tech complex stabilises, rallies are likely to be sold.

Bitcoin at $67,800 sits beneath all four tracked moving averages, and the distance between price and those averages tells you how much repair would be required for anything more than a bounce. Read each average separately. The H1 50-period SMA at $70,600 is the nearest obstacle, roughly $2,800 overhead, and it is the first gate any recovery must clear, far enough away that a routine bounce may not even reach it. Above that, the H4 50-period SMA at $73,800 and the H1 200-period SMA at $73,933 converge within $133 of each other, an alignment that turns them into a single reinforced resistance band rather than two separate lines. When two timeframes settle that closely, the market tends to defend the zone collectively, and that $73,800–$73,933 range is the decisive ceiling, a full $6,000 above current price. Highest of all sits the H4 200-period SMA at $78,900, representing full structural repair rather than a corrective rebound. Because every average sits overhead, there is no dynamic support beneath price, which means the downside is defined entirely by horizontal zones. On the support side, the first shelf is $67,568, Friday's low and the level that must hold to prevent a fresh leg lower, followed by $66,000, then the psychologically significant $65,000, with $63,500 marking a deeper demand area where buyers have historically appeared. On the resistance side, the first barrier is $70,600, aligning with the H1 50-period average, then the $73,800–$73,933 confluence, followed by $75,000 and the $78,900 structural ceiling beyond. Two paths are worth mapping. If buyers defend $67,568 and push through $70,600, a test of the $73,800–$73,933 band becomes the immediate objective, and a daily close above that confluence would be the first honest evidence the liquidation cascade has exhausted itself. If $67,568 gives way under sustained selling, expect a slide toward $66,000 and then $65,000, which would leave every average firmly overhead and confirm the downtrend remains fully intact. The bias stays bearish while price trades beneath the full stack, and with roughly $230 to first support and $2,800 to first resistance, the near-term picture rests entirely on whether ETF outflows subside and whether Nvidia's selloff marks a floor or merely a pause.