FX.co ★ Crude | #Bitcoin chart analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) trading was subdued on Wednesday, remaining within a restricted range; it is currently hovering around the $63,800 level, having touched a low of $62,727. Earlier, U.S. inflation data released on Tuesday came in higher than expected, weighing on the market. Institutional interest in the leading cryptocurrency continues to wane, as evidenced by a net outflow of $95 million from U.S.-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Tuesday—marking the fourth consecutive day of investor withdrawals. Meanwhile, market analysts are urging traders to exercise extreme caution; a recent report from K33 Research indicates that as leverage levels on crypto derivatives exchanges rise, structural risks—which could trigger sharp price swings in either direction—are accumulating. A primary macroeconomic factor dampening risk appetite in the digital asset market is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October, released on Tuesday. The data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy for a longer period. The headline CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, exceeding the consensus market forecast of 0.3%. Core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—also rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching the increase seen in September and coming in above the 0.2% expectation. It should be noted that, due to the absence of baseline data for October 2025—a result of the U.S. federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025—the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics did not provide year-over-year (YoY) comparative data in this release. The strong monthly inflation figures immediately prompted "hawkish" commentary from central bank officials. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that if the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% or more, the Federal Reserve might need to consider a sharp 50-basis-point interest rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting on December 8–9 to preserve the central bank's credibility. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also expressed a similarly hawkish stance, emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive policies to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes might need to be faster than previously anticipated. This broadly "hawkish" posture strengthened the U.S. dollar and pushed the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note above the 5% mark, creating significant headwinds for non-yielding, riskier assets. Derivatives data from CoinGlass shows that the sell-off following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data triggered a wave of forced liquidations in the cryptocurrency market. This primarily wiped out over-leveraged long positions and revealed highly aggressive bullish positioning within the market. Despite this "flush-out," K33 Research noted that the open interest for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains elevated at 353,000 BTC—placing it in the 99th percentile of data from the past two years. Meanwhile, the annualized funding rate over the past week averaged 8.4%, suggesting that even as spot prices test fragile support levels, market demand for leveraged long positions remains robust. K33 analysts pointed out that, historically, such high levels of open interest are often accompanied by significant price volatility. Given that the current market positioning lacks a clear, one-sided bias—unlike the bull markets seen in June and August—a drop below support could trigger a cascade of long liquidations; conversely, a rebound could lead to widespread short covering. From a technical perspective on the daily chart, Bitcoin remains in a bearish correction phase, trading well below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). These moving averages are densely clustered above the $76,400–$78,900 range, creating a "bottleneck" effect. This configuration suggests that any cyclical rebound is likely to encounter renewed selling pressure—especially considering that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently just above the oversold zone (at approximately 33), and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in negative territory. On the upside, initial resistance lies near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76,409, followed by the 100-day moving average (around $77,481) and the 50-day moving average (around $78,895). Further up, there is a significant horizontal resistance level at $85,000—a level that the bulls must reclaim to restore their medium-term bullish outlook. Conversely, on the downside, the lack of near-term structural support means that if selling pressure resurfaces, Bitcoin could face a deeper correction and potentially decline further toward a key psychological support zone.