FX.co ★ berta.hill | EUR/USD

Good evening. This year, three interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank are expected. Expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2024 have decreased from two rounds to one. Previously, 5-6 cuts were expected. It is clear that the euro should decline. A stronger easing is expected in the European Union. On Friday, Mueller stated that the committee is ready to start cutting rates in June. However, he also noted that there is no need to rush with monetary policy easing. He warned that the European Central Bank should be cautious and that further policy easing should wait for reports. In other words, they should act based on incoming data. If the data align, then another series of easing can be conducted. In general, everything is clear with the European Central Bank. Its managers provided a comprehensive answer on when they will start easing monetary policy. There is a 90% chance it will start in June, as Lagarde mentioned back in February. The Federal Reserve System, for understandable reasons, postponed the interest rate cut, and there are rumors that there will be no rate cut at all this year. Also, when representatives of the European Central Bank spoke, they stated that geopolitics should not affect energy prices, which could cause inflation to rise. On the technical side. My forecast for today, I can say, did not come true. This is because on Friday the price tested the support at 1.06192. I was leaning towards growth, but the price closed where it opened. There was basically no growth that I predicted, and since the support was not tested, neither was the resistance. On Tuesday, I will prioritize trading within a range. I think the pair will trade between the levels of 1.06872 and 1.06192.