FX.co ★ Jackroay | NZD/USD

I consider today’s upward price movement technically justified because I see that the American session closed an unfilled zone at the highs, even though a similar imbalance was immediately left behind again. I interpret this behavior as a clear sign that the U.S. session participants are deliberately avoiding a correction, which does not align with my own trading intentions. I prefer to wait patiently for a pullback, and I believe that the price first needs to reach the 0.5955 level to make such a scenario viable. I view this level as critical because a move below it would allow the M30 and H1 timeframes to reverse downward and generate the first serious signal of a broader corrective phase. I expect that any further breakout of the highs will most likely occur during the Asian session or early European trading tomorrow, although I cannot rule out that the Americans themselves might still push the price above 0.6000. I believe the market is intentionally delaying the correction, which forces me into a waiting mode rather than active participation. I observe that the broader wave structure still maintains a downward bias, and I note that the MACD remains firmly in the lower sell zone and below its signal line. I recall that the MACD showed bearish convergence back in December, followed later by a regular divergence, which strengthens my longer-term bearish expectations.

I see strong technical justification for renewed downside pressure, as I recognize that the price may ultimately aim for the major support zone around 0.5510, which has historically produced significant rebounds in 2020, 2022, and again in 2025. I understand that the corrective rally seen in the second half of November was logical, especially after the price reached the 161.8 Fibonacci expansion target and formed bullish divergence on both MACD and CCI alongside a descending wedge reversal pattern. I acknowledge that this rally played out cleanly and respected technical signals, particularly against the backdrop of broad U.S. dollar weakness at the time. I now observe that the U.S. dollar appears better positioned for near-term strengthening against other major currencies, which shifts my bias back toward selling on lower timeframes. I believe short positions offer a more favorable probability, especially since MACD has produced bearish divergence again and CCI has entered an overheated zone. I notice that despite overall dollar strength elsewhere, NZD/USD remains inflated due to cross-currency flows, which I see as a distortion rather than true strength. I expect renewed downside pressure toward 0.5681 and potentially 0.5840, although I fully acknowledge that sentiment remains aggressively bullish and makes any countertrend selling highly risky.