FX.co ★ Death-X-PK | XAU/USD, GOLD

XAUUSD M-15 Time Frame Update Gold (XAU/USD) maintained small intraday advances above $5,050 during the first part of the European session on Wednesday. Bets on more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) drive the US Dollar (USD) to a nearly two-week low and serve as a crucial tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. However, the underlying positive sentiment may limit the upside for the safe-haven commodity. Bullish traders may also choose to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report before positioning for additional gains. Meanwhile, concerns about the Feds independence reappeared as US President Donald Trump threatened to sue his newly appointed Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, if interest rates were not lowered. Furthermore, Fed Governor Stephan Miran stated that full central bank independence is unattainable. This eclipsed hawkish statements from two regional Fed presidents, Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack, and did not provide any relief to USD bulls. This implies that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the upside. Technically, the XAU/USD pair demonstrated some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart earlier this month. The aforementioned SMA rises steadily and remains considerably below the price, reflecting the underlying bullish bias. A sustained hold above this average would keep the course slanted upward. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is above the Signal line, with both above zero, and a contracting histogram indicates fading upward momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 (neutral) indicates a consolidative tone; thus, it is recommended to wait for some follow-through strength above the $5,090 level before preparing for further gains. XAUUSD M-15 Time Frame Update Gold is exhibiting signs of ongoing strength, as it has been pushing up against resistance since the previous lower swing high of $5,092. Wednesday marked the third day in a limited range with a high around the zone. The day's high was $5,119, which exceeded the swing high and approached a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent major downswing at $5,141. That represents the resistance zone's highest point. Nonetheless, the nature of the counter-trend rally suggests that higher prices will be tested. Following last week's low of $4,402, gold formed a first leg up in a rebound to the lower swing high of $5,092. This resulted in a decline to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a lower swing high of $4,655. The second leg up started at that low and was confirmed today with a move over the lower swing high. With a daily close above the Fibonacci level at $5,141, a bullish continuation signal will be confirmed. A full retracement of the negative downturn from the record high points to an upward objective near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $5,342. That aim is reinforced by a rising measured move, as illustrated by the chart's rising ABCD pattern. A 100% projection of the first leg up achieves the same goal. That is where the advance match's CD and AB legs are located. Resistance may be observed when the two legs are symmetrical. Regardless of the possibility for more highs, a bullish continuation signal must first trigger above $5,141 and then be confirmed by a daily close above that level. If a retreat comes first, gold may drop to test support near the 20-day average, which is now $4,936. However, this week's low of $4,965 is inside the weekly trend structure of increasing weekly lows. Although the week has not ended, a decline below that level would be short-term negative. A pullback to lower prices could get closer to the higher swing low of $4,655 before bullish momentum leads to another attempt to get above the 61.8% Fib zone. So, if gold remains above $4,655, there is a possibility that it may reach the higher target.