FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/JPY

I am analyzing the USD/JPY pair on the M15 timeframe and I see a structure that supports a continuation of the broader bearish trend. I am focusing on the Elliott Wave approach, and I interpret the recent price action as the development of a sequence of local first and second waves within a larger impulsive decline. I believe that the corrective rebounds are relatively shallow and lack the strength required to invalidate the prevailing downward momentum. I am observing that each bullish pullback appears to be corrective in nature rather than impulsive, which reinforces my expectation of further downside. I am also examining the MACD histogram, and I notice that it remains predominantly in negative territory, which I interpret as confirmation of sustained bearish pressure. I see that even when the histogram attempts to rise toward the zero line, it struggles to cross decisively into positive territory, and I consider this a sign of weak bullish momentum. I am paying close attention to the exponential moving averages with smoothed settings at periods 55, 89, and 144, and I see that they are aligned in a bearish configuration, with shorter-period averages positioned below the longer ones. I interpret this alignment as dynamic resistance that may limit upward corrections. I am also noting that price consistently trades below these moving averages, and I view this as additional confirmation of trend continuation. I believe that as long as price remains below the 55 EMA and fails to break above the 89 and 144 EMAs with strong momentum, the probability favors further declines. I am therefore prioritizing short setups on intraday pullbacks, and I am expecting the formation of a stronger third wave downward once the current corrective phase completes.

I would like to greet all participants and guests and I want to emphasize that I strongly believe disciplined forecasting plays a critical role in achieving consistency in trading results. I have personally observed that when I combine structured analysis with patience, I significantly improve my probability of initiating successful trades. I am currently studying the USD/JPY pair on the H4 timeframe, and I see that the price recently retested the 152.30 support level but failed to break decisively below it. I interpret this reaction as a temporary defense by buyers, and I acknowledge that the pair showed a degree of positive momentum from that zone. However, I am also observing that the price remains stable below the 153.90 resistance area, and I consider this ceiling to be a strong technical barrier limiting bullish continuation. I am analyzing the Stochastic indicator, and I see that it is positioned in overbought territory, which I interpret as a warning that upward momentum may soon weaken. I believe that overbought conditions on the H4 timeframe often precede corrective or impulsive bearish waves, especially when aligned with key resistance levels. I am therefore maintaining a bearish bias as long as the pair trades below 153.90, and I am waiting for clearer confirmation in the form of renewed selling pressure. I am particularly focused on the 153.25 level as a trigger point, and I believe that a confirmed bearish move from this area could open the path toward 152.30 once again. I expect that if 152.30 is broken with strong momentum, the next downside objective near 151.00 could become achievable. I am therefore favoring short positions under current technical conditions, and I am aligning my strategy with the expectation of a resumption of the broader downward movement.