FX.co ★ Der | CL/Crude Oil

During Thursday’s early European trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the United States crude oil benchmark, traded higher near $87.50 per barrel, marking its highest level since June 11. This surge in crude prices is primarily fueled by mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following a 12th consecutive night of military strikes on Iran and growing fears of severe disruptions along two of the world's most critical maritime energy transit corridors. The recent escalation intensified after US President Donald Trump warned that the United States would retaliate by destroying an Iranian bridge or power plant for every vessel targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, significantly raising the risk premium around the strategic choke point. Compounding these supply route vulnerabilities, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared on Thursday that no oil tanker will be permitted to enter or exit the waterway without prior coordination with Iranian authorities. Concurrently, the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacking two Saudi oil tankers—the ENCELA and the LAYLIA—as they navigated the Red Sea, alleging the vessels breached a naval blockade enacted earlier in the week. Energy analysts at consulting firm Gelber & Associates emphasized that the price surge stems less from an immediate physical reduction in global oil production and more from market anticipation of heightened volatility, particularly if Saudi oil exports to Asia or Red Sea shipping routes face persistent operational bottlenecks. This geopolitical risk premium is further supported by broader developments across the global energy landscape. Economists and energy strategists at Rabobank observed that risks have intensified significantly, pointing to the collapse of the interim US-Iran peace deal alongside accelerating missile and drone strikes between Ukraine and Russia. These dual flashpoints have ignited broad-based rallies across the energy spectrum, boosting crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, and European power markets over the past week, reinforcing the strong upward trajectory seen in benchmark crude contracts.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart for WTI crude oil reveals an intriguing dynamic where strong bullish momentum is currently testing critical long-term overhead resistance. Despite the rapid price spike, the broader near-term bias remains technically constrained as price action holds just below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which sits at $88.15 and serves as a major trend barrier. This resistance cluster is further reinforced by the upper daily Bollinger Band at $88.10, creating a formidable supply zone that has effectively capped the current rebound. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 67.50, approaching overbought territory and signaling that while buying pressure remains powerful, the short-term rally is becoming increasingly stretched. The middle Bollinger Band, located far below current spot prices near $75.55, highlights the vertical nature of the recent upside extension. A decisive daily candlestick close above the $88.10–$88.15 resistance confluence would validate a bullish breakout, opening the pathway toward the $90.00 psychological handle. Conversely, if overhead supply triggers a corrective pullback, initial support is anchored at the middle Bollinger Band near $75.55, with a deeper structural safety margin located at the lower Bollinger Band around $63.00, where long-term value buyers would likely step in to absorb selling pressure.