FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CHF

I see the situation on USD/CHF as technically structured and predominantly bearish, with the daily chart clearly showing that from July 2025 to February 2026 the pair traded within a flat channel before decisively breaking its lower boundary at 0.7780. I interpret the southern gap and the subsequent renewal of the local low as confirmation that sellers have seized medium-term control. I note that the corrective pullback managed to bridge the gap, but I observe that Friday’s close at 0.7678 remained firmly below the former channel support, which I now treat as resistance. I believe this price behavior increases the probability of a continued decline toward 0.7600, where the previous local low stands as a critical test level. I see the downward cycle from 0.8039 to 0.7601 as a meaningful impulsive leg, and I recognize that the corrective rebound toward the 0.7767 Fibonacci retracement was technically valid but structurally weak. I acknowledge that the pair briefly spiked above that retracement, yet I interpret the quick rejection as evidence of persistent bearish pressure. I understand that the market could still produce volatility in either direction, but I currently consider rallies as corrective within a broader bearish framework unless price reclaims higher resistance zones.

I also analyze the H4 structure and see a descending channel formed after the rebound from 0.8040, which reinforces my bearish bias as long as lower highs and lower lows continue to print. I note that the pair has been consolidating around 0.7686, and I treat this level as a pivotal intraday resistance. I believe that holding below 0.7686 keeps the path open toward 0.7643 and ultimately 0.7599–0.7600, while I recognize that a break above 0.7686 could trigger a corrective push toward 0.7730 and possibly 0.7774. I observe that the price is trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.76835, which I interpret as an additional bearish signal. I consider 0.76072 as an important daily support that could temporarily slow the decline, but I also see potential for an extension toward 0.75509 if bearish momentum accelerates. I remain cautious about aggressive selling at current lows, and I find the 0.7620–0.7660 zone interesting for a potential countertrend long if clear bullish confirmation appears. I conclude that I will let price action around 0.7600 and 0.7686 guide my next decision, as I see these levels defining whether the pair extends its decline or begins a broader corrective recovery.