FX.co ★ Romania Holds Key Rate at 6.50%

In its inaugural policy meeting for 2026, the National Bank of Romania decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 6.50%, marking the eleventh consecutive pause—a move that aligned with market forecasts. Even though headline inflation eased slightly to 9.7% in December 2025, it remains significantly above the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 3.5%, with core inflation continuing its upward trend. The nation's GDP growth saw a recovery, reaching a year-on-year increase of 1.7% for the third quarter, driven by investment, private consumption, and net exports. However, domestic demand continues to struggle, leading to anticipated stagnation in the fourth quarter. The labor market remains fragile, as evidenced by a rise in unemployment to 6.1% during the third quarter, though it showed a slight decline in October and November. In addition, employment levels continued to fall and there was a moderation in wage growth. Financial conditions have shown improvement; interbank rates and bond yields have decreased, the leu has appreciated, and the pace of credit growth has decelerated. Looking forward, inflation is expected to decrease gradually, influenced by factors including fiscal consolidation, the effective absorption of European funds, structural reforms, and the broader context of global monetary and geopolitical developments.