FX.co ★ Wheat Falls to Around Monthly Lows

Wheat futures have declined to approximately $5.10 per bushel, approaching their lowest levels for the month, primarily due to a substantial increase in global supply that surpasses demand. According to USDA estimates reported by Cepea, the global harvest for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach a record-breaking 842.17 million tonnes, while consumption is anticipated to be around 823.9 million tonnes. This imbalance is expected to result in higher ending stocks and an increased stocks-to-use ratio, effectively removing the scarcity premium that had previously bolstered prices. The situation is further exacerbated by regional factors such as Argentina's abundant and competitively priced wheat crop, along with nearly record yields from the Constanta Varna Burgas area, which are inundating export markets. In Brazil, reduced domestic consumption and exports are poised to elevate carryover stocks to levels not seen since July 2019. Although intermittent weather disruptions and significant import orders from Algeria and Saudi Arabia have occasionally provided temporary price support, the availability of ample export supplies, efficient logistics, and cautious selling by farmers continue to limit price increases.