FX.co ★ Cotton Futures Remain in Narrow Range

Cotton futures have been oscillating within a narrow bracket of 64 to 65 cents per pound since the latter part of December, with fluctuations primarily driven by supply and demand factors. Recently, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised its crop forecast for the 2025-26 season upward by approximately 2.5%, equating to an additional 7.5 lakh bales (each weighing 170 kg), bringing the total to 317 lakh bales. This adjustment reflects higher-than-anticipated production in regions such as Maharashtra and Telangana. In contrast, the Brazilian Cotton Producers Association (Abrapa) announced on January 21 that Brazil's cotton output is projected to decrease by nearly 10% during the 2025/26 season, stemming from reductions in planted areas and yields. The USDA's January report underscores tighter supply conditions alongside increased demand for the 2025/26 season. Global production was reduced by approximately 300,000 bales to 119 million, while global consumption saw a similar increase, also reaching 119 million bales. In the United States, production expectations decreased more than anticipated, declining from 14.3 to 13.9 million bales, largely attributed to a smaller crop in the Mid-South region.