FX.co ★ Canada Retail Sales Seen Rebounding in January

Canada’s retail sales are estimated to have risen 1.5% month over month in January 2026. If confirmed, this would represent a rebound from the 0.4% decline recorded in December and the strongest monthly increase since December 2024, according to advance estimates.

In December, retail sales fell 0.4% to C$70.0 billion, with declines recorded in three of nine subsectors. The drop was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers, where sales decreased 1.6%. Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and motor vehicle dealers, slipped 0.3%.

December’s gains were concentrated at gasoline stations and fuel vendors, where sales rose 2.8%, and among sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers, which posted a 1.0% increase. By contrast, retailers of building materials and garden equipment, as well as furniture, home furnishings, and electronics, recorded the largest declines.

Retail sales fell in seven provinces in December, with Alberta posting the steepest drop at 2.1%, while Quebec recorded a 0.6% increase. On a year-over-year basis, total retail sales in December were essentially unchanged.