FX.co ★ U.S. Core PCE Inflation Cools to 2.7% in Q4 2025, Extending Disinflation Trend

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices in the United States eased to 2.70% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 2.90% in the third quarter of 2025. The data, updated on 20 February 2026, indicate a continued moderation in underlying inflation pressures.

The Core PCE index, a closely watched gauge of inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices, has been gradually moving closer to levels more consistent with long‑term price stability. The decline from the third to the fourth quarter reinforces the trend of disinflation over the second half of 2025.

Market participants and policymakers are likely to interpret the latest Core PCE reading as evidence that inflation is easing, potentially influencing expectations around the future path of U.S. interest rates and broader financial conditions.