FX.co ★ Italy’s 10-Year BTP Yield Climbs to One-Month High

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield climbed toward 3.5%, its highest level since February 3, as investors refocused on inflation risks amid an escalating conflict in the Middle East. The crisis has intensified, with reports that a US submarine sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka and that NATO air defenses intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile fired toward Turkey. The resulting surge in energy prices is expected to prolong inflationary pressures across Europe, bolstering expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain a more hawkish policy stance. Recent data have reinforced these concerns: February figures showed euro area headline inflation at 1.9% year-on-year and core inflation at 2.4%, both above market forecasts. Markets now assign roughly a 40% probability to an ECB rate hike by year-end—reversing last week’s pricing, which implied similar odds of a rate cut—and around a 60% chance of a hike by June 2027.