FX.co ★ Rupiah Under Strain After Trade Data Miss

The Indonesian rupiah weakened beyond the key psychological threshold of IDR 17,000 per U.S. dollar on the first trading day of April before paring some losses, though it remained under pressure as the U.S. dollar index stayed broadly firm amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict. Domestic data further weighed on sentiment: February’s trade surplus came in below expectations, with exports remaining subdued while imports grew at a double-digit pace, driven in part by higher energy costs. Elevated global oil prices have also heightened upside risks to inflation, even as annual inflation eased to a three-month low of 3.48% in March, returning to Bank Indonesia’s target range of 1.5%–3.5%. In its latest outlook, the OECD lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Indonesia to 4.8% from 5.0%, citing global energy market volatility and geopolitical risks. On the policy front, Bank Indonesia on Wednesday unveiled new measures aimed at curbing speculation against the rupiah, though their effectiveness may be constrained by the country’s relatively modest foreign exchange reserves.