FX.co ★ Heating Oil Futures Rise

Heating oil futures climbed more than 1% to about $4.30 per gallon on Tuesday, nearing their highest levels since June 2022, as traders weighed President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran against the possibility of a ceasefire. Trump reiterated that he would strike Iran’s energy and transportation infrastructure within 24 hours if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

At the same time, a proposed 45-day ceasefire, put forward by mediators involved in US–Iran negotiations, surfaced as a last-ditch effort to de-escalate the crisis. Iran rejected the temporary truce, insisting instead on a permanent settlement and relaying its own set of conditions through intermediaries. Trump later dismissed the proposal as “not good enough,” though he acknowledged it as an important step.

In parallel, OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 206,000 bpd in May, but the closure of key shipping lanes through the Strait and damage to regional infrastructure could constrain the volume of crude that ultimately reaches global markets.