FX.co ★ Moody’s Cuts India’s 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 6%

Moody’s Ratings on Tuesday cut its 2026 economic growth forecast for India to 6.0% from 6.8%, citing weak private consumption, slower capital formation, and muted industrial activity in the context of elevated energy prices. This projection is below the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate, which pegs GDP growth for FY2026/27 at 6.9%, with first-quarter growth expected at 6.8%.

In its Global Macro Outlook May update, Moody’s noted that over the next six months, the impact of higher energy prices and fuel and fertilizer shortages will differ significantly across countries, depending on their specific exposure and economic resilience. “The global outlook remains highly uncertain amid an increasingly prolonged confrontation and fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran. We estimate growth losses of about 0.8 percentage points for India,” the agency said.