FX.co ★ Aussie Heads for Flat Weekly Finish

The Australian dollar hovered near $0.70 and was poised to end the week largely unchanged, as investors awaited next week’s policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are increasingly factoring in the possibility that the RBA has already ended its tightening cycle, with the impact of this year’s three rate hikes starting to show up in economic data.

A series of softer indicators — spanning GDP figures to housing prices — has strengthened expectations that policymakers will leave the cash rate on hold at 4.35% on Tuesday. At the same time, investors have pared back expectations for an August rate increase: the implied probability has dropped sharply from over 80% a month ago to about 35%.

The May CPI report, due on June 24, will be critical following an unexpectedly weak April inflation reading, as officials seek clearer confirmation that underlying price pressures remain elevated.

Globally, risk appetite improved after US President Trump signaled that a deal with Iran could be reached as early as this weekend, following his decision to postpone planned military strikes on the country.