FX.co ★ US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.62% on Tuesday, near a two-month high, as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher and stoked concerns about inflation and the interest rate outlook.

The move followed President Donald Trump’s decision to reinstate a blockade on Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and to seek reimbursement from countries that benefit from US efforts to secure the vital shipping route.

Investors also awaited key US inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress later today, with markets scrutinizing his remarks for additional policy signals. Current market pricing suggests roughly a 51% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, compared with a 23% chance that the central bank will leave rates unchanged.