FX.co ★ UK House Price Growth Falls Short of Forecast

The UK Nationwide House Price Index rose 1.6% year-on-year in August 2026, up from a revised 1.4% increase in July but below market expectations of a 2.1% gain. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Robert Gardner noted that both market activity and house prices have remained muted in recent months against a backdrop of economic uncertainty. In particular, tensions in the Middle East have pushed up energy prices, adding to volatility in market expectations for future interest rates.

Gardner highlighted that moderating private-sector wage growth, alongside indications that higher energy costs have not yet fed through into core inflation, could give the Bank of England greater scope to pause and evaluate its policy stance. He also pointed out that housing affordability is gradually improving, as house prices are rising much more slowly than earnings. However, this benefit has been partially offset by higher mortgage rates.

Looking ahead, Gardner suggested that market activity could regain momentum if the impact of the energy shock diminishes and market interest rates decline. On a monthly basis, house prices increased 0.2% in August, following a 0.1% fall in July.