FX.co ★ Jackroay | XAU/USD, GOLD

I see gold entering a technically vulnerable phase after the recent bullish structure was clearly broken, and I interpret the rejection near the 4943 resistance zone above 5000 as a strong signal that buyers temporarily lost control. I recognize that the rebound from 4841 showed that demand is still present, but I believe the inability to sustain momentum above the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level suggests exhaustion rather than strength. I think the market is currently driven more by positioning and liquidity conditions than by pure headlines, and I agree that while news such as the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes can trigger volatility, I understand that we cannot predict in advance whether the reaction will be directional or simply noise. I observe that previous major U.S. data releases failed to create sustained trends in gold or the dollar index, and I conclude from that behavior that technical structure remains dominant in the short term. I believe that if price breaks decisively below 4854.48, I will treat that as confirmation of bearish continuation, and I will then look for acceleration toward the 4700 region. I also consider the possibility that price may consolidate between 4800 and 5000, and I would interpret such a range as distribution rather than accumulation unless buyers reclaim 5000 with conviction. I think that the broader rise since the beginning of the year has already priced in much of the macro uncertainty, and I suspect that without a fresh geopolitical shock, upside momentum may remain limited.

I also evaluate the lower timeframes and I see that on M30 the corrective structure resembles a local wave (b) within a broader complex correction, and I interpret the positioning of the 55, 89, and 144 smoothed EMAs as consistent with a temporary upward correction before another leg down. I monitor the MACD histogram for weakening bullish pressure, and I expect that once the corrective bounce completes, wave X?(ii) could trigger renewed selling pressure. I acknowledge the alternative scenario of an expanded diagonal triangle, but I assign it very low probability unless the market breaks above the 100 Fibonacci level of the prior impulse with strong follow-through. I personally do not expect a major geopolitical escalation between the U.S. and Iran, and I therefore do not anticipate a panic-driven spike in gold. I interpret last week’s strong bearish daily candle and the subsequent engulfing behavior as evidence that sellers are gradually gaining initiative. I define 4777 as my immediate downside objective, and I plan to look for short entries specifically in the 4920–4970 supply zone if a clear reversal pattern forms there. I remain cautious about extreme bearish projections such as 3300 in the near term, but I do consider 4404.58 a deeper structural support where a technical reaction could emerge. I maintain that while some investors view Bitcoin as digital gold, I do not assume a perfectly inverse correlation, and I prefer to base my decisions strictly on the chart structure and confirmed breaks rather than narrative shifts.