FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I see that trading opened with a clear gap down on GBP/USD due to geopolitical tensions around Iran, and I recognize that this distorted what previously looked like a technically bullish structure. I admit that before the weekend I expected higher prices, yet I am relieved I did not hold positions because I prefer not to leave trades open during uncertain macro conditions. I observe that 1.33127 acted as strong support where aggressive buyers stepped in, and I note that 1.33580 also attracted demand despite an attempted selloff. I believe buyers may attempt another push toward 1.34542 resistance, especially if volatility cools and the dollar demand softens. I understand that international developments can shift sentiment quickly, but I trust that price action will ultimately reflect that reality. I see that the current structure hints at a potential move toward 1.3426, aligning with the upper boundary of a triangle, yet I remain cautious because the moving averages are still angled downward. I notice that oscillators are rising slowly, and I interpret this as building but uncommitted bullish pressure rather than explosive momentum.

I acknowledge that I opened a short position at 1.3372 with a target at 1.3320, yet I recognize that price is currently trading at 1.3410, putting my position under pressure. I see that hourly Fibonacci extensions now project bullish targets at 1.3621, 1.3819, and even 1.4138, and I admit that this challenges my bearish bias. I understand that a breakout above 1.3430 could invalidate my short-term downside expectations and trigger stronger upside acceleration. I recognize that the broader trend still leans downward based on moving averages, yet I also see that repeated false breakdowns around 1.3335 weaken bearish conviction. I believe that if price revisits 1.3335 and forms another false breakout, I may consider buying with a tight stop. I accept that holding high-risk trades during geopolitical instability requires stricter monitoring and disciplined exits. I conclude that I must remain flexible, because if bulls seize control above resistance, I should adapt quickly rather than defend a losing bias.