FX.co ★ HiDe_N_SeEk | XAU/USD, GOLD

On May 15, 2026, traders purposefully retreated into gold and silver when the outcomes of the significant Trump-Xi meeting and the most recent, higher-than-expected U.S. inflation figures were revealed. As of this writing, the cease-fire between the United States and Iran is still in effect, and the tanker route through the Strait of Hormuz has been moving along steadily. The high geopolitical risk premium that had encouraged safe-haven flows early this year has been lessened thanks to these and other factors. The central banks' demand for precious metals has remained constant. The People's Bank of China and other developing countries have been buying gold for more than 17 months. While demand for safe havens declines and industrial demand from the solar, electric vehicle, and technology sectors is still strong, silver is still experiencing a shortage. We are keeping a careful eye on the Trump-Xi talks, which encompass rare earth minerals, trade, technical collaboration, and possible agreement on Iran. We might still witness a reversal of the precious metals' price decrease if the meetings turn out well. Gold Spot is currently trading at $4,559.34 on the 4-hour timeframe as of this writing. Price just printed a strong red candle that eliminated the $4,638.5 Fib zone, the red 50 MA, and the floor of the blue declining channel. Following a bearish engulfing candle that closed from the $4,718 high in defiance of the higher low structure, strong distribution and selling have proceeded lower. The price is currently aiming for the brief defense. 786 Fib at $4,561 and then the 1.0 extension level at $4,503. Without witnessing an oversold bounce at this time, the RSI dropped below 40, confirming the loss of gold's upward momentum. According to the volume profile, the range of $4,680 to $4,697 was fair value, but it has since been rejected in favor of sellers below. Any recovery rally should be capped by sellers near the white declining trendline from April, which is approximately $4,671. Within the extended down-channel, the structure is unquestionably bearish below $4,638.

Last week, Spot Gold (XAUUSD) closed at $4,540.64, down $175.07, or 3.71%. The selling was not haphazard, and that is the worst weekly performance of the year. The Fed's view was drastically altered by three hot inflation readings in a row. Gold absorbed the liquidation throughout the week as traders who had been positioned for rate cuts began to liquidate down bets. The market is repricing the significance of the rate cut narrative that propelled gold to all-time highs earlier this year. After an effort to break out over a long-term 50% mark at $4,744.35 failed to draw enough fresh buyers to prolong the advance, Spot Gold (XAUUSD) ended the week down. A support cluster consisting of a short-term 50% level at $4,495.33, a long-term 61.8% level at $4,427.82, and a short-term 61.8% level at $4,401.82 was formed when sellers struck it hard. The support zone created by the March 23 major bottom at $4,099.12 and the 52-week moving average at $4,129.82 is the best support this week. Resistance is piled at $4,744.35, $4,850.68, and $5,028.04 on the upside. A transaction through $4,891.54 will cause the momentum to move upward. I'll be observing how traders respond to $4,495.33 to $4,401.82 early this week. My attention will move to $4,129.82 to $4,099.12 if it doesn't work. The long-term trend is being managed by the 52-week moving average at $4,129.82. Another thing to think about. $4,481.78 is 20% less than the record high of $5,602.23. Spot Gold (XAUUSD) enters bear market territory if it closes below it. One of the biggest weekly increases in months was recorded by the U.S. Dollar Index. The demand for the US dollar was driven by rising yields and changing Fed expectations. Every buyer outside of the US pays more for Spot Gold (XAUUSD) when the dollar is stronger, and this demand quickly declines. Gold cannot withstand both forces acting against it at the same time, and it did not attempt to do so last week.