FX.co ★ Crude | USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair continued its strong upward momentum for the sixth consecutive day, settling around the 1.3930 level during the European session. Technical indicators on the daily chart show a clear bullish trend, with the price moving below the upper trendline of a well-defined ascending channel. The current price holding above the 9- and 50-day exponential moving averages reinforces this positive trend, confirming the continuation of the upward momentum without any signs of a breakout. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 56, indicating a balanced and strong uptrend, with buyers maintaining control amidst key macroeconomic risks. Looking ahead, the pair's short-term technical target lies near the upper trendline of the ascending channel, around the 1.3970 level. A decisive break above this resistance level and a sustained hold above it would strongly confirm the continuation of the overall uptrend and pave the way for a move towards the 17-month high of 1.4248 reached on June 24, 2026. Conversely, any short-term pullback or profit-taking would find immediate protection at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) around 1.3915, followed by the 9-day EMA around 1.3876. Below, stronger structural support lies near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around 1.3790. Should selling pressure exceed these levels, a break of the channel boundaries would trigger a significant bearish reversal, putting the Canadian dollar under strong downward pressure and potentially pushing it down to 1.3481, its lowest level since October 2024. Despite the continued dominance of the US dollar, Scotiabank's market strategists note that the Canadian dollar is still finding intermittent defensive support from broader commodity markets and potential interest rate dynamics. Specifically, high oil prices and a relatively stable spread between short-term US and Canadian Treasury yields provide a key buffer for the Canadian dollar. However, analysts caution that this domestic macroeconomic protection may ultimately prove insufficient to counteract the strength of the US dollar, driven by expectations of higher global interest rates. They warn that the Canadian dollar may struggle to withstand broader trending pressures on the US dollar ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) upcoming monetary policy statement, keeping North American currency market participants on high alert for increased market volatility.