FX.co ★ GokBoruHunter | XAU/USD, GOLD

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Outlook Update Gold prices bounced back from a daily low of $3,989, rising more than 1% on Tuesday despite a stronger US Dollar and higher US bond yields. Oil price drops are a catalyst for the yellow metal as traders await the Fed's policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. XAU/USD is currently trading at $4,061. Today's US data offered no clear clues for gold's performance, as the precious metal started negative but eventually turned green. Geopolitics remains a key driver of gold prices, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, fell more than 1% to trade at $100.05 per barrel. It appears that there is no fast solution to the Middle East crisis because discussions between the US and Iran haven't reached any results. As can be seen in recent news, the US and Israel are very likely to continue attacking Iran after the elections in Israel and the US, which resulted in pushing the WTI price higher, above $100.00, on Monday. US housing data was weaker than the previous reading, but market participants largely ignored it. Consumers' confidence rose in October from 84.2 to 91.7, according to the Conference Board, as Americans became more optimistic about labor and business conditions. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained unchanged at 5.8%. Orders for Durable Goods rose 1.8% from 0.1%, driven by strong business investment amid AI infrastructure build-up. Meanwhile, ADP Employment Change 4-week Average fell to 16.8K from 18.5K, suggesting a slight moderation in the labor market. Traders are focused on the Fed, not the monetary policy statement, unless it signals an aggressive stance. The probability of an interest rate hike stands at 9% and is a complete shock ahead of the US midterm election. The key event will be a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who might outline the next steps for the December rate decision. Notably, other central banks, besides the Fed, are tightening rates amid fears that inflation will keep rising. The European Central Bank (ECB) will decide on Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. Prime Terminal data indicates an 83% probability that the Fed will hike interest rates by 25 basis points in December. Though the probability remains positive, it continues to fall below last week's 90%. Technically, gold is forming a "bullish harami" candle pattern, and today's move above October's 23-day high of $4,034 confirms it. Although the market is momentum-driven and currently bullish, the RSI reading is bearish. If the trend continues bullishly, the price target would be a resistance trendline traced from September highs, at approximately $4,100. Any break above that level would lead to a test of $4,200. Further resistance is at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,219 and the 50-day SMA at $4,288. If XAU/USD drops below $4,000, the next target would be a test of last Friday's low at $3,975. Further support comes at the July 17 low at $3,959 and the YTD low at $3,941.