FX.co ★ Gas shock makes energy companies stock market leaders again

Renewed volatility in the global natural gas market, driven by supply disruptions from Qatar, is creating significant bullish potential for European energy firms. According to a new Goldman Sachs report, the main beneficiaries will be players with a high share of spot-linked contracts and strong positions in LNG trading.

Damage to infrastructure in Ras-Laffan — which accounts for roughly 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity — has already pushed European gas prices up above €60/MWh. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs has radically revised its commodity forecasts, raising expectations for European gas well above the market consensus. The bank cites long-term supply constraints compounded by logistical paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz. It also raised its Brent crude forecasts to $92.7/bbl for 2026 and $80.2/bbl for 2027.

Among the global oil and gas heavyweights, Goldman Sachs names Britain’s BP as its top pick. Analysts note the company’s strong LNG trading unit and a high share of spot‑linked contracts. BP’s key advantage in the current environment is that it has no direct assets in Qatar, allowing the corporation to profit from price rallies while avoiding operational risks in the unstable region.

The bank reminds investors that price shocks traditionally generate outsized trading profits. During the 2022 energy crisis, integrated gas divisions at oil majors posted record earnings. Goldman Sachs now forecasts a similar, if somewhat more moderate, increase in margins.

In the upstream (exploration & production) segment, Norway’s Vår Energi is named as the chief beneficiary. The company is highly exposed to European spot prices because of a large share of unhedged production. Other winners in a tightening market include Equinor ASA and Harbour Energy plc, though their upside is judged more modest.

The global supply-demand balance continues to deteriorate. Goldman Sachs estimates that about 19% of global LNG capacity is currently idled. That is provoking fierce price competition: Asian benchmarks are rising faster as buyers divert Atlantic-bound LNG cargoes toward the East.