FX.co ★ Strait of Hormuz reopening dims prospects for oil rally

The US Department of Energy has significantly downgraded its expectations for oil prices amid de-escalation in the Middle East. The forecast for the average price of Brent crude for 2026 has been revised downward by 14%, from $95.39 to $81.91 per barrel.

Looking ahead, the department anticipates an even more dramatic drop in oil, predicting prices will fall to $64.76 per barrel in 2027. The primary factor putting pressure on the oil market will be the continuous accumulation of global crude stocks.

This swift revision of forecasts has been triggered by easing geopolitical tensions and resumed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The market has already begun to reflect these changes: in June, the average Brent price fell to $85, marking a decline of $22 compared to May levels. The downward trend continues, with September futures trading below $75 as of July 7. The Department of Energy expects oil prices to dip to $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Additional pressure on prices comes from a recovery in global supply. In early July, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, increased its crude exports to levels nearly matching those observed before the Israeli and US military operations in Iran.