FX.co ★ Arabica Coffee Futures Remain Near 6-Month Lows

Arabica coffee futures hovered around $3 per pound, close to a six‑month low, weighed down by broad expectations of a bumper harvest in top producer Brazil and generally favorable weather. Data released on February 5 by the National Supply Company (CONAB) indicate that Brazilian coffee output in 2026 is projected to increase by 17.2% from the previous year, reaching a record 66.2 million bags. Of this total, Arabica production is expected to account for 44.1 million bags, while Robusta output is forecast to rise 6.3% year-on-year to 22.1 million bags.

At the same time, brokerage firm Eisa forecast that Brazil’s upcoming coffee crop, which will begin to be harvested in the next few months, could reach a record 75.8 million 60‑kg bags. Researchers at Cepea highlighted that the improvement in weather conditions throughout much of January, along with expectations of continued humidity in early February, should support grain filling during this critical stage of the coffee growing season.