FX.co ★ Coal Holds Steady as China Cuts Import Forecast

Coal prices remained above $115 per ton on Tuesday, trading near their highest levels in a year despite a downgraded import outlook from China’s leading coal industry association and signals of stronger domestic production. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association cut its 2026 coal import forecast to 465 million tons, down from 480 million tons projected roughly three weeks earlier. It also expects domestic output to rise to 4.86 billion tons this year, up from last year’s record 4.8 billion tons, and noted that production could climb even further if imports decline sharply. The revised outlook comes after Indonesia — the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal — moved to curb shipments in a bid to support prices. Indonesia, which supplied around 40% of China’s coal imports last year, plans to reduce its own output by nearly a quarter this year to about 600 million tons.