FX.co ★ Palm Oil Extends Gains into March on Geopolitical Tailwinds

Malaysian palm oil futures rose nearly 1.5% on the first trading day of March, trading around MYR 4,100 per tonne, supported by a weaker ringgit and stronger edible oil prices on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges. A rally in crude oil prices, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, further underpinned the market.

In Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter, authorities increased the crude palm oil export levy to 12.5% of the reference price from 10% to help finance its biodiesel program, a move expected to tighten export availability. Demand indicators were also positive: India’s palm oil imports surged 51% month-on-month in January to a four-month high, bolstering expectations that 2026 purchases could reach up to 800,000 tonnes.

However, upside momentum was limited by soft export performance. Cargo surveyor Intertek reported that Malaysian palm oil shipments fell 21.5% in February to 1.15 million tonnes, despite the usual seasonal demand ahead of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. Market participants are now looking to February PMI data from China, a key buyer, amid concerns that the Spring Festival may have dampened manufacturing and services activity.