FX.co ★ Cocoa Futures Move Higher

Cocoa prices edged back above $3,000 per tonne, rebounding from late-February lows of $2,888 per tonne—the weakest level in nearly three years. The recovery was driven primarily by technical buying rather than any fundamental shift in the market, which remains characterized by ample supply and subdued demand.

Favorable weather conditions have strengthened production prospects in key West African producers, notably Ivory Coast and Ghana, while output in South America—especially in Ecuador—is also increasing. On February 27, Hedgepoint Global Markets revised its outlook, forecasting a global surplus of 365,000 tons for the 2025/26 season. The firm now expects production of 1.78 million tons in Ivory Coast, 650,000 tons in Ghana, and 615,000 tons in Ecuador.

At the same time, the ICCO raised its projected surplus for 2024/25 from 49,000 to 75,000 tonnes, citing a faster-than-anticipated recovery in production. Global output for 2024/25 is now estimated at 4.728 million tons, up from a previous forecast of 4.698 million tons and 8.4% higher than the 4.362 million tonnes recorded in 2023/24.