FX.co ★ Soybeans Rebound but Trade Uncertainty Caps Gains

Soybean futures edged up to around $11.70 per bushel, staging a modest rebound after a sharp 5.7% decline on March 16. Nonetheless, prices remain under pressure amid persistent uncertainty surrounding global trade flows. The USDA projects that China, the world’s largest soybean importer, will purchase about 108 million metric tons in 2026, slightly above last year’s level, underpinned by steady demand from its feed industry.

Recent US soybean shipments to China have picked up following a trade truce, with February imports rising to 1.45 million tons, the highest level since June. However, the initial burst of buying has since lost momentum, and the postponement of a planned meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi has further clouded the outlook for future demand.

Soybean futures are on track for a weekly loss of about 4.5%, ending a six-week rally. At the same time, Brazil continues to dominate China’s soybean imports, with shipments in early 2026 surging more than 80% year on year.