FX.co ★ Corn Futures Attempt Recovery

Corn futures climbed back above $4.40 per bushel, attempting a recovery from the five-week low hit on April 13, as global supply risks tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted. Ongoing bottlenecks in this critical Gulf shipping corridor have restricted international flows of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including ammonia and urea, driving up input costs ahead of the US planting season. This has heightened concerns that rising production expenses may affect farmers’ planting decisions, potentially prompting a shift away from corn toward less fertilizer-intensive crops such as soybeans.

Even so, the broader supply outlook remains burdensome. The USDA kept projected US corn ending stocks unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, holding at a seven-year high, while global inventories increased to 294.81 million metric tons, exceeding expectations. On the demand side, export volumes remain stable, and ethanol production—underpinned by higher crude oil prices—continues to serve as a steady source of corn consumption.