FX.co ★ TSX Edges Down on US-Iran Ceasefire Stalemate

The S&P/TSX Composite Index slipped below the 34,000 mark on Monday as stalled US–Iran peace talks weighed on risk appetite ahead of a packed week of central bank meetings, including the Bank of Canada. Oil prices advanced, supported by constrained shipments through the Strait of Hormuz that kept global supplies tight.

Both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve are scheduled to deliver policy decisions on Wednesday. Markets widely expect the BoC to leave interest rates unchanged. However, persistent geopolitical tensions, ongoing oil shocks, and mounting worries over energy-driven stagflation—combined with higher bond yields and signs of softer credit demand—have fueled speculation that policymakers could shift to a more hawkish tone later this year.

This backdrop pressured financials and the broader index. Bank of Montreal fell 0.5%, Toronto-Dominion Bank slipped 0.2%, and Royal Bank of Canada also edged lower. Fairfax Financial declined 0.4% ahead of its earnings release.

In contrast, energy producers outperformed as crude extended its gains on supply concerns. Canadian Natural Resources rose 0.7%, while Suncor Energy added 0.5%.