FX.co ★ Thailand Cuts 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.6%

Thailand's Finance Ministry has lowered its 2024 economic growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.0%, citing the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, though it expects government measures to provide some support to overall activity.

Vinit Visessuvanapoom, director of the ministry's Fiscal Policy Office, told a press briefing that exports—one of the main engines of Thai growth—are now projected to increase by 6.2% this year, a sharp upgrade from the previous forecast of 1.0% growth made in January.

Private investment is expected to expand by 3.2%, while public investment is projected to grow by 1.7%. Private consumption is forecast to rise by 2.3% in 2024.

The ministry now anticipates headline inflation of 3.0% for the year, well above the prior estimate of 0.3%, but still within the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1–3%. The Middle East war has driven up energy prices, Vinit noted, but he stressed that there is no cause for concern about stagflation, as inflation remains within the target band and investment continues to grow.