FX.co ★ Rupiah Inches Up But Weekly Slide Persists

The Indonesian rupiah inched higher in thin holiday trading on Friday, hovering near 17,300 per dollar after briefly touching a fresh low around 17,390 earlier. The modest rebound followed a softer U.S. dollar index and tentative signs of stabilization in regional foreign-exchange markets. Even so, sentiment remained fragile ahead of a series of key domestic data releases.

April CPI, due Monday, will be closely watched for evidence of pass-through from higher non-subsidized fuel prices, with elevated global oil prices amid Middle East tensions adding to inflation risks. March trade figures will also come under scrutiny after a surge in imports narrowed February’s surplus, underscoring external pressures. First-quarter GDP data will help clarify the growth trajectory after the economy hit a three-year high in the fourth quarter. April foreign-exchange reserves will be monitored as well, following a near two-year low in March.

Despite Friday’s uptick, the rupiah is on track for a fifth consecutive weekly decline, down about 0.6% so far, pressured by shrinking government cash buffers. Uncertainty also lingers over the central bank’s policy backing, even though interest rates have been kept on hold since October.