FX.co ★ Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Estimate for Q2 2026 Eases to 3.8% from 4.3%

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model has trimmed its estimate for U.S. real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 to 3.8%, down from a previous projection of 4.3%. The updated nowcast, released on 28 May 2026, signals a modest cooling in expected economic momentum compared with earlier in the quarter.

Both the prior and current readings relate to the same second-quarter 2026 period, underscoring that the shift reflects a revision in the model’s assessment rather than a change in the reference quarter. While still pointing to solid expansion, the lower estimate suggests that more recent incoming data have led the model to scale back its earlier optimism about the pace of U.S. growth. Investors and analysts will be watching subsequent GDPNow updates closely for further revisions as additional economic indicators are incorporated into the forecast.