FX.co ★ Rupee Retreats from Multi-Week Highs

The Indian rupee slipped to around 95.1 per dollar, pulling back from multi-week highs as uncertainty over US–Iran negotiations kept crude oil markets volatile. Brent crude hovered near $100 per barrel amid mixed signals on diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran. The rupee also came under pressure from ongoing foreign portfolio outflows, with overseas investors offloading about $2.5 billion in equities over the last two sessions and bringing total outflows since late February to nearly $25 billion.

At the same time, markets weighed a batch of mixed domestic data. India’s fiscal deficit widened to INR 3.6 trillion in April, almost twice the level seen a year earlier, even as industrial production grew 4.9% year-on-year, underscoring resilience in manufacturing despite elevated oil prices and a weaker currency. Attention now turns to this week’s Reserve Bank of India policy meeting, where expectations are divided between a rate pause and a 25-basis-point increase.