FX.co ★ Coal Retreats on US-Iran Peace Prospects

Thermal coal futures fell to about $146 per ton, pulling back from nearly three-year highs, as growing expectations of an imminent peace agreement between the US and Iran pressured oil and natural gas prices and reduced incentives for fuel switching. The two countries are expected to sign the deal in Switzerland on June 19, with reports suggesting it will include reopening the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that previously handled roughly one-fifth of global energy shipments before the conflict began.

The prolonged disruption to flows through the strait had driven energy importers across Asia and Europe to seek alternatives to Persian Gulf natural gas, with Japan and South Korea in particular ramping up coal consumption during the war. Earlier this month, coal prices had already spiked to multi-year highs after Indonesia tightened export controls on key commodities, a move that is expected to delay coal shipments from the world’s largest exporter.