FX.co ★ Oil Falls as US-Iran Deal Boosts Supply Hopes

Crude oil traded below $76 per barrel on Wednesday, holding near its lowest level since early March amid expectations of a US–Iran agreement that could quickly return additional barrels to the global market. The proposed interim deal, anticipated to be signed on Friday, would reportedly allow Tehran to resume oil exports immediately and relax restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, tanker operators have begun repositioning vessels toward the region, and the potential release of more than 100 oil-laden tankers currently idled in the Gulf could further swell global supply.

The International Energy Agency has cautioned that the conflict may trigger a larger-than-expected drop in demand and help push the market back into surplus. Crude prices have already fallen almost 40% from their conflict-era peak as geopolitical risk has receded. The downturn in prices is also easing inflation pressures, with lower fuel costs providing some relief to consumers. Nevertheless, US crude stockpiles continued to shrink, with industry data indicating an 8.3 million-barrel drawdown last week.