FX.co ★ 10-Year Treasury Yield Edges Down

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.44% on Thursday, partially retracing the nearly 5 basis point increase seen in the previous session, as investors digested the latest FOMC decision and weighed what newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s leadership could mean for monetary policy and inflation. As widely expected, the Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged but signaled that additional tightening may be required this year to contain inflationary pressures. About half of policymakers now anticipate at least one rate hike in 2026, and the Fed sharply upgraded its projections for both headline and core PCE inflation for this year.

Despite the overall hawkish tone, Warsh emphasized his commitment to combating inflation, indicating that he would take a different approach to policy while reaffirming the central bank’s dedication to restoring price stability. Futures markets now fully price in a rate increase by October. In the meantime, the yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note inched up to 4.20%.