FX.co ★ TTF Prices Rise as Supply Recovery Doubts Grow

European natural gas prices climbed 3.8% to around €42/MWh as optimism over a rapid recovery in supply diminished. Sentiment deteriorated following renewed attacks in Lebanon and the cancellation of planned talks intended to formalize a preliminary US–Iran truce. An earlier interim understanding between Washington and Tehran had briefly fueled expectations of improved supply flows, but shipping data showed no outbound tanker movements from the Persian Gulf on Friday morning, after only a short-lived pickup in activity earlier in the week.

Weather conditions also lent support to prices, with forecasts of high temperatures across Europe expected to drive up cooling demand. EU gas storage sites are currently about 45.56% full, compared with 54.38% at the same time last year and roughly 14% below the five-year average. Net injections in June are also running below typical seasonal levels. The latest rebound in prices comes after a nearly 20% decline over the previous week, when hopes that a US–Iran deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore LNG flows from the Gulf weighed on the market.