FX.co ★ New Zealand Dollar at Over 10-Week Low

The New Zealand dollar hovered at a more than ten-week low near $0.573, pressured by a stronger US dollar and renewed tensions in the Middle East. The greenback advanced as markets increased bets on a US rate hike following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

At the same time, US–Iran talks got off to a confused start on Sunday after Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended discussions in response to President Donald Trump’s latest threat, even as other reports suggested negotiations continued into the early hours of Monday.

Domestic data offered only limited support for the kiwi. New Zealand’s GDP figures released last week pointed to a recovery gaining traction, but they largely captured conditions before the latest escalation in the Middle East. As a result, forecasts now suggest GDP will barely grow or may even contract in the second quarter.

Markets still expect a 25-basis-point rate increase in July, consistent with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hawkish stance. However, swap markets now price in only two hikes for the year, down from three previously anticipated.