FX.co ★ U.S. Growth Pulse Softens as Chicago Fed National Activity Index Slips into Negative in May

The U.S. economy showed signs of moderating momentum in May, as the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dipped into negative territory. The broad-based gauge of economic activity fell to -0.10 in May 2026 from a revised 0.19 in April 2026, according to data updated on 25 June 2026.

The move from positive to slightly negative suggests overall growth pulled back toward, and marginally below, its historical trend following April’s stronger reading. While the change does not on its own signal a downturn, it indicates that the pace of expansion eased as the second quarter progressed.

The CFNAI aggregates a wide range of economic indicators into a single monthly measure, offering a snapshot of whether the U.S. economy is running above or below its long‑run average. May’s reading implies that economic conditions, while still relatively stable, have become less robust than earlier in the spring.