FX.co ★ World Bank Cuts China Growth Outlook Through 2027

The World Bank on Tuesday projected that China’s economic growth will slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, citing a prolonged property market downturn and cautious consumer spending. It warned that a deeper housing slump could further drag on consumption, real estate investment, and related industries. The forecast comes amid persistent weakness in the housing sector, with new home prices falling 3.5% year-on-year in May — the 35th consecutive monthly decline. Despite these headwinds, China’s economy expanded 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by resilient export performance. The government has set a GDP growth target of 4.5%–5.0% for 2026, the lowest since 1991 and the first downward revision since 2023, after keeping the goal at around 5% for the previous three years.