FX.co ★ US Inflation Rate Seen Falling for 1st Time in 4 Months

The annual US inflation rate is projected to slow to 3.8% in June 2026 from 4.2% in May, its first deceleration in four months after hitting the highest level since April 2023. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decline by 0.1%, which would mark the first monthly drop since May 2020, driven largely by lower energy costs.

Gasoline prices are estimated to have fallen by about 9% following the ceasefire between the US and Iran, easing inflationary pressures from the energy component. Airfares and rents are expected to post moderate increases, while service prices—especially hotel and motel rates—are likely to rise amid stronger demand related to the FIFA World Cup. Motor vehicle insurance premiums are also anticipated to rebound.

Meanwhile, core consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.2% for the second straight month, leaving the annual core inflation rate steady at 2.9%.