FX.co ★ UK Gilt Yields Retreat from Two-Month Highs on Fiscal Optimism

The UK 10-year gilt yield gave up earlier gains to trade around 4.95%, pulling back from near two-month highs as investors reacted positively to expectations that Andy Burnham—widely expected to be confirmed as the UK’s next prime minister on Monday—will appoint a fiscally conservative chancellor. With Burnham’s elevation largely priced in, market attention has shifted to his choice for the Treasury amid concerns over the UK’s fragile public finances. Reports suggesting that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is the frontrunner for the role have reassured investors, easing fears that Burnham might instead choose Ed Miliband, who is perceived as favoring a more expansionary fiscal approach. At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices to one-month highs, bolstering expectations that the Bank of England will maintain a tightening bias. Markets now fully price in a rate hike in November, with another anticipated by March 2027.