FX.co ★ US GDP Likely Expanded 2.1% in Q2

The US economy likely grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in Q2, matching the pace recorded in Q1 and underscoring its continued resilience despite the conflict in the Middle East, elevated gasoline prices, and the impact of tariffs. Consumer spending is expected to have remained strong, picking up from the previous quarter, supported by larger tax refunds and the boost from the FIFA World Cup. Business investment in equipment likely delivered another quarter of double-digit growth, driven by ongoing spending on AI-related technologies. In contrast, investment in structures is expected to have stayed weak, contracting for a tenth consecutive quarter, while residential investment likely fell for a sixth straight quarter. At the same time, net trade is projected to have dragged on overall growth, potentially subtracting more than one percentage point from GDP.