FX.co ★ US 10-Year Treasury Yield Continues to Rise

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.69% on Thursday, adding to the previous session’s 7 bps increase and returning to its highest level since January 2025. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to 5.23%, its highest in 19 years, as investors continued to digest the latest FOMC decision and Chair Warsh’s press conference. As expected, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, though three FOMC members voted for a rate hike. Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s resolve to bring inflation under control and emphasized that policymakers stand ready to act if needed, but he did not join those calling for an immediate increase and avoided offering explicit forward guidance. As a result, many investors see the central bank as merely delaying what they regard as an inevitable rate hike. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September has declined to about 63%, down from nearly 80% before the Fed’s announcement.